Week 13: Playoff Scenarios And Value of BYEs
CALL ME GEORGE WASHINGTON CARVER CUZ IT'S NUT CRUNCH'N TIME
Playoff Scenarios
Unitas Division
-If Jack (Remembering Terrace Marshall) beats Barra (Winning Is A Brees) in Week 13, he clinches the division
-If Barra wins, the two teams will be tied entering Week 14 and the only applicable tiebreaker if they both have the same result will be points scored (Presently Jack leads Barra by 5 points)
Marino Division
-Daniel (Baby Don’t Hurts Me) clinches with a win OR a Curtis (Anti-Vaxxonville Jaguars) loss
-If Curtis wins and Daniel loses in Week 13, there will be a Winner-Take-All Week 14 matchup. Despite the gap in points, Anti-Vaxxonville would claim the Marino in that scenario based on a superior division record.
Wild Card
-Jack and Daniel have both clinched playoff berths regardless of the rest of the season
-Both Barra and Curtis have all but clinched. The only scenario whether either of them could miss is if they lose out and Shannon (The Dennis System) wins out and outscores them by ~150 points. They would also need Taylor (FalcoholicsAnonymous) OR Melfi (Country Road, Take Mahomes) to win out AND Reid (Yves Saint Lawrence) OR Nick (Ben’s Walking Boots) to win out. Taylor/Melfi play each other in Week 13 and Reid/Nick play each other in Week 14 so obviously all four can’t win out.
-Everyone in spots 5 through 9 are all 5-7 and nobody stands out as it pertains to head-to-head tiebreakers. Melfi (CRTM) and Reid (YSL) have about a ~100 point advantage over Taylor (FA) and Nick (BWB) right now. As mentioned before, Melfi and Taylor play this week and Reid and Nick play next week.
-The manager with the most uphill battle to make the playoffs is Eric (Square Root of Justin Squared), but he still is in it. He’s one game back of a playoff berth and absolutely has to win out. The concerning thing from his perspective is that SROJS has to close at least a 100+ point gap and perhaps a 200+ point gap depending on who he’d end up having to break a tie with. Also notable is that it’s possible Justin Fields will not play the rest of the fantasy regular season with his shoulder injury and then the Bears BYE in Week 14. The positive thing for SRJS is their two remaining opponents are fellow Wild Card contenders (BWB in Week 13 and TDS in Week 14) so Eric can help create something of a path for himself.
The Big Question: How Valuable Is The BYE?
It goes without saying that everybody still in their division race wants to win the rest of their regular season games and wants to get the BYE. However, how much does it truly help toward the main goal of winning a championship? Let’s examine from three different perspectives: a team that is a favorite in every matchup, a team that’s got even odds in every matchup and a team that’s an underdog in every matchup. This is obviously an inexact science, but it’s a way for us to get a handle on how we should approach this mentally.
We’ll define a “favorite in every matchup” as a team that has a 60% shot to win any matchup it’s in. With a BYE, the Favorite has:
-A 60% chance to reach the championship game
-A 36% chance to win the championship
Without a BYE, the Favorite has:
-A 36% chance to reach the championship game
-A 21.6% chance to win the championship
We’ll define “even odds in every matchup” as a team that has a 50% shot to win any matchup. With a BYE, Even Odds has:
-A 50% chance to reach the championship game
-A 25% chance to win the championship
Without a BYE, Even Odds has:
-A 25% chance to reach the championship
-A 12.5% chance to win the championship
We’ll define an “underdog in every matchup” as a team that has a 40% shot to win any matchup it’s in. With a BYE, Underdog has:
-A 40% chance to the championship game
-A 16% chance to win the championship
Without a BYE, Underdog has:
-A 16% chance to reach the championship game
-A 6.4% chance to win the championship
The BYE isn’t everything, but it unquestionably shifts the dynamics of everything, especially if you’re not one of the top-tier favorites. If you’re an Underdog that’s earned a BYE, you’re more likely to reach the championship game than a Favorite that doesn't have a BYE. An Underdog with a BYE is more than twice as likely to win the championship as an Underdog with one. Needless to say, these are a massive two weeks for Jack/Barra and Daniel/Curtis.
To REACH The Championship Game
1. Favorite with BYE 60%
2. Even Odds with BYE 50%
3. Underdog with BYE 40%
4. Favorite WITHOUT BYE 36%
5. Even Odds WITHOUT BYE 25%
6. Underdog WITHOUT BYE 16%
To WIN The Championship Game
1. Favorite with BYE 36%
2. Even Odds with BYE 25%
3. Favorite WITHOUT BYE 21.6%
4. Underdog with BYE 16%
5. Even Odds WITHOUT BYE 12.5%
6. Underdog WITHOUT BYE 6.4%